2026 Midterms • 85 Profiles • 12 Races

AMERICA FIRST SCORECARD

2026 Election Battleground

Tap a state to view race details

Toss-Up

Lean R

Lean D

Safe R

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12 Races Tracked

Toss-Up:2

Lean R:5

Lean D:3

Safe R:2

Primary:3

TX — Senate

Texas Senate

Toss-Up (Primary)

May 26, 2026

GOP PRIMARY RUNOFF

Ken PaxtonRLEADING

Senate Candidate

B+

AF: 71

John CornynR

U.S. Senator (Inc.)

AF: 8

Status: Paxton 40.7% vs Cornyn 41.9% in R1 — runoff is a dead heat

Stakes: The defining primary of 2026. Populist insurgent vs DC establishment. Trump has not yet endorsed.

Winner faces Democrat James Talarico in Nov. TX hasn't elected a Dem senator since 1988.

NC — Senate

North Carolina Senate

Toss-Up

Nov 3, 2026

GENERAL ELECTION

Michael WhatleyR

Senate Candidate

D+

AF: 36

Roy CooperD

Senate Candidate

AF: 6

Status: Polling is tight. Cooper has fundraising edge ($18M vs $5M).

Stakes: Open seat — Tillis retiring. Could determine Senate majority. Expected to be most expensive race in history.

Whatley has Trump endorsement. Cooper has statewide name ID and winning record.

ME — Senate

Maine Senate

Lean D Pickup

Nov 3, 2026

GENERAL ELECTION

Susan CollinsR

U.S. Senator (Inc.)

AF: 4

Status: Collins is only GOP senator in a state Harris won by 7pts.

Stakes: Dem pickup opportunity. Collins vulnerable — AIPAC funding scandal, moderate record.

Dem nominee TBD (Janet Mills or Graham Platner). Collins has $8M+ cash on hand.

AK — Senate

Alaska Senate

Lean R

Nov 3, 2026

GENERAL ELECTION

Dan SullivanRLEADING

U.S. Senator (Inc.)

AF: 21

Mary PeltolaD

Senate Candidate

F+

AF: 10

Status: Sullivan is incumbent in a state Trump won by 14pts.

Stakes: Peltola proved she can win statewide in 2022. Sullivan supported ACA subsidies — vulnerable from right.

Could be competitive if national environment favors Dems.

GA — Senate

Georgia Senate

Lean D Hold

Nov 3, 2026

GENERAL ELECTION

Jon OssoffDLEADING

U.S. Senator (Inc.)

AF: 4

Status: Ossoff won narrowly in 2020 runoff. GOP candidate TBD.

Stakes: Trump won GA in 2024. Ossoff is vulnerable but no strong GOP challenger yet.

Key state for Senate control.

OH — Senate Special

Ohio Senate (Special)

Lean R

Nov 3, 2026

GENERAL ELECTION

Jon HustedRLEADING

U.S. Senator (App.)

AF: 24

Sherrod BrownD

Senate Candidate

F+

AF: 13

Status: Husted is appointed incumbent. Ohio has trended right.

Stakes: Vance's old seat. Brown trying comeback after 2024 loss.

Brown's economic populism could play, but OH is now R+10.

IA — Senate

Iowa Senate

Likely R

Nov 3, 2026

GENERAL ELECTION

Ashley HinsonRLEADING

Senate Candidate

D+

AF: 33

Status: Hinson is Trump-endorsed in a state Trump won by 8pts.

Stakes: Ernst retiring. Open seat. Hinson is establishment pick.

Dem candidate TBD. Iowa has shifted significantly right.

LA — Senate

Louisiana Senate

Safe R (Primary Battle)

2026

GOP PRIMARY

Bill CassidyRLEADING

U.S. Senator (Inc.)

F+

AF: 12

John FlemingR

Senate Candidate

C+

AF: 57

Status: Cassidy is incumbent but facing grassroots primary challenge.

Stakes: Cassidy voted to convict Trump. Fleming challenging from the right.

No Dem threat. The real race is the primary.

KY — Senate

Kentucky Senate

Safe R (Open Seat)

2026

GOP PRIMARY

Daniel CameronRLEADING

Senate Candidate

D+

AF: 33

Andy BarrR

Senate Candidate

AF: 22

Status: Cameron has Trump endorsement from 2023 gov race.

Stakes: McConnell retiring. Both candidates are establishment — question is degree.

No Dem threat. McConnell's donor network flows to winner.

FL — Senate Special

Florida Senate (Special)

Likely R

Nov 3, 2026

GENERAL ELECTION

Ashley MoodyRLEADING

U.S. Senator (App.)

D+

AF: 34

Status: Moody appointed by DeSantis. Rubio's old seat.

Stakes: DeSantis-orbit appointment. Will she be independent or a rubber stamp?

FL is now solidly R. Dem challenger TBD.

NE — Senate

Nebraska Senate

Lean R

Nov 3, 2026

GENERAL ELECTION

Pete RickettsRLEADING

U.S. Senator (Inc.)

AF: 24

Dan OsbornI

Senate Candidate

AF: 29

Status: Ricketts is incumbent but Osborn lost by only 6pts in 2024.

Stakes: Osborn is a genuine populist outsider. Billionaire vs union leader.

NE Dem Party endorsed Osborn. Could be a surprise.

NH — Senate

New Hampshire Senate

Lean D Hold

Sep 8, 2026

PRIMARIES

John E. SununuR

Senate Candidate

AF: 23

Chris PappasD

Senate Candidate

AF: 6

Status: Open seat — Shaheen retiring. Both parties have contested primaries.

Stakes: Purple state. Sununu (brother of popular ex-gov) has Trump endorsement.

Pappas is favored for Dem nom. Sununu vs Scott Brown in GOP primary.